The Global Struggle: Democracies vs. Dictatorships
The root of the battle between the West and the rest of the world being a feature, not a bug.
"Democracy is the worst system of government in the world, apart from all the other systems of government that have been tried to date" ~ Winston Churchill
If you open a map, you'll see the three main friction points in the world: Eastern Europe (Russia-Ukraine), Israel-Iran, and of course, in the Far East, China-US in the Taiwan region. These are the friction points between dictatorships and Western countries or those with Western orientation that challenge Russia, China, and Iran by their very existence. The friction between the public in Russia, China, or Iran and their respective governments threatens the stability of these regimes because people in these dictatorships aspire to live freely, like in the West.
Imagine a resident in China seeing on their cell phone or TV programs the prosperity, freedom, liberty, and wealth of other Chinese people in nearby Taiwan, living in a democracy, and wondering why these Chinese can live under a Western-style government while they can't. Don't you think this creates resentment, frustration, anger, or rage? Even in a dictatorship, every government has constraints and limitations when faced with an angry and enraged mob.
One of the problems with dictatorial regimes is that the leaders of these countries are plagued by paranoia, seeing everyone around them - whether talking to them or serving them a cup of tea - as an enemy. Political purges are the means to get rid of and distance real or imagined rivals. The website "Politico" described Xi Jinping's purge campaign in December 2023:
"...The unexplained disappearance and dismissal of China's foreign and defense ministers just months after they vanished earlier this year are just two examples... Since the beginning of his rule in 2012, Xi Jinping's endless purges have removed millions of officials - from the Communist Party's leading 'tigers' to low-level bureaucratic 'flies,' to use Xi's evocative terminology.
What's different today is that the neutralized officials are not members of hostile political factions but loyalists from Xi's own inner circle, leading to serious questions about the regime's stability... Other high-profile victims include the generals responsible for China's nuclear weapons program and some of the most senior officials overseeing the Chinese financial sector. Some of these former Xi loyalists apparently died in custody. Another ominous sign is the untimely death of Li Keqiang, China's recently retired premier - number 2 in the Communist hierarchy - who allegedly died of a heart attack in a Shanghai swimming pool in late October, despite enjoying some of the world's best medical treatments. After his death, Xi ordered a heavy reduction in public mourning for his former rival..."
This is no different from the sense of persecution felt by Russian President Vladimir Putin... Remember the Wagner rebellion or the news about oligarchs, CEOs, and politicians who died in car accidents, fell from windows, or met their end in a bathtub or from some kind of poisoning? This is the same obsession with control and the incessant need to see everything as a real threat.
The aspiration of peoples living under dictatorial rule is to adopt the Western way of life that advocates equal rights, liberty, and democracy. These are components that tempt millions of people each year to migrate to the West. How many Europeans or Americans have actually abandoned their countries for Iran, Russia, or China? The West frightens dictatorships because the public grants the government political legitimacy in every election. The public raises and lowers parties, prime ministers, ministers, decision-makers, and members of parliament, in contrast to dictatorial countries where the government holds the reins of the state through the military arm that pursues government opponents.
The greater fear of dictatorial rulers stems not only from public pressure but from the fact that's hard for them to digest - the world is ruled by the West. Japan, Australia, the European Union, and the United States control most of the capital, technologies, developments, space industries, automotive, medicine, infrastructure, consumer goods, and commerce. How many inventions and innovations have come out of Iran, Russia, or China?
The most sought-after universities are not in Russia but in Europe and the USA. Leading research centers in physics, biology, chemistry, astronomy, and others are located in the West, and this Western control over trade systems, finances, banks, and advanced human capital undermines dictatorial regimes. If you're in Beijing, Moscow, or Tehran, you need to learn English to succeed, import or export through Western countries, and consider that if sanctions or restrictions are imposed by the United States or the European Union, you'll be very, very limited... and after all this... all important trade routes in the world, by sea and land, are monitored by Western forces led by the USA.
The rivalry between democracies and dictatorships exists not because there's something the West might or can or should do, but because the West exists. The very existence of Chinese people living under democracy in Taiwan versus Chinese in the motherland under dictatorship, or Israelis living freely versus Iranians under dictatorship, or Americans or Europeans versus Russia, Cuba, and Venezuela, poses a threat to the government pursuing control and supervision.
Let's expand on this a bit more... How many times have you heard about the BRICS countries - a collection of nations that pose a challenge to large blocs like the European Union and the G7? BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. What does this really mean? It's a Tower of Babel of countries that are hostile to the West or see the West as a threat. In recent years, additional countries have joined BRICS, and they're almost constantly announcing a new currency that will supposedly threaten the US dollar. The problem lies in the very nature of the main regimes that make up this Tower of Babel. Don't count on a new currency besides the dollar for years to come... and don't take the statements of salespeople about this seriously.
Dictatorial regimes tend to be suspicious. Paranoia is like a shadow that follows the leadership almost everywhere. Now, how much does the Russian president really trust the Chinese president? How much does the leadership in Tehran really trust Moscow or Beijing? Just to put things in perspective: The Chinese are eyeing the natural resources in Siberia. The Russians know this, and both countries are nuclear powers. How much trust is there really? The Chinese promise to invest in Iran but avoid annoying the Americans on the issue... how much can the Iranians rely on Beijing? The Russians are cultivating cooperation with North Korea in the field of weapons because both countries don't trust the Chinese. North Korea wants to be more independent, and Russia won't give China the upper hand in the military field. Iran's missile attack on Israel proved to the Chinese that they are not a source of stability in the Middle East and could endanger energy supplies from the Persian Gulf to China's shores.
You see... the essence of a dictatorial regime does not allow for criticism, self-learning, rebuilding, trial and error. What is perceived as Western weakness - such as criticism of the regime, journalistic investigations, taking responsibility, government inquiry committees, freedom of expression, restraint, or in fact components that restrain the government - these are actually the strength of the West. Let's take the Iranian missile attack on Israel as an example and learn from it...
Iran's goal is to acquire nuclear weapons and maintain regime stability. Since the war began on October 7, 2023, Iran and its proxies have repeated their mistakes again and again... until Iran acted against its own interests and launched hundreds of ballistic missiles towards Israel for the second time. The investment of billions of dollars in its firstborn and beloved Hezbollah in Lebanon would have been worthwhile if they had shown restraint and saved their weapons for a time when Israel might have been caught weak on its northern border. But Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel on the second day of the war in October 2023, aiming to tie down IDF forces in the Galilee and reduce the days of war in the Gaza Strip. In the first months of the war, the IDF was not prepared to open a second front. This was known in Israel, and it was known in Lebanon and Iran.
But... what they didn't consider in Tehran was the possibility that the priority of Israeli forces against Hamas would eventually reduce the military threat from the southern front and allow the IDF to expand the fighting in the north. The confrontation with Iran escalated after Israel began to exploit the crisis created on the northern border and eliminated Iranian military personnel in Syria. This was at a stage when Israel already had significant achievements in the Gaza Strip, and from March, Israel began to accelerate attacks on Hezbollah, Iranian and Syrian forces, and formed a larger military force for the northern front.
The Iranians preferred to ignore and silence the Israeli warnings. They saw Israel's dealing with crises on various fronts as a success for the ring of fire they had invested in: like the Houthis, Hezbollah, forces in Iraq, and more... until... Israel forced the Iranians to respond due to the attack on the building near the Iranian embassy in Syria. Iran fell into its own trap and launched a massive missile attack in April, giving Israel what it needed. To provoke the Iranians even more, like the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Iran again fell into its trap... and urged Hezbollah to fire more rockets at Israel. Israel again provoked Iran by assassinating senior Hezbollah and Iranian figures... until Israel began assassinating decision-makers in Hezbollah and Iran, including Hassan Nasrallah.
Israel received a prize from Iran. Iran couldn't resist the temptation and gave Israel a motive to harm Iran and its infrastructure, and perhaps even its nuclear facilities. The second missile attack on Israel was a combination of lack of restraint, failure to learn from mistakes, and stupidity combined with malice.
Israel has a motive and legitimacy to act against targets in Iran and Lebanon. Why? Because in a dictatorial regime, there is no criticism. There's no one to bang on the table and tell the leader that he's wrong. Mistaken. There's no restraint or presentation of other alternatives. Look at the war between Russia and Ukraine. Did anyone bang on Putin's table and tell him this would be the mistake of his life, and it's better for him to negotiate with the West than to receive a red card from the international decision-making table? If someone thinks Putin prefers to be close to Beijing rather than Berlin, they don't understand what they're talking about.
In today's era, Japan, which was once a totalitarian empire, or Nazi Germany, are part of the West because they share common values and a political culture identical to the US, France, Britain, the Netherlands, or Canada. This is an idea that is not shaped by geography or territory but by changing the nature of the regime. The vitality of components in democratic regimes such as parliament, an independent judiciary, independent press, and other bodies that restrain the government give the West its superior advantages over dictatorships in the world. Decision-makers in the government or parliament are not the people who know better... they are just representatives... and the difference is that while in democracies the representatives are accountable to the public, in a dictatorship there is no accountability, and therefore, it is very difficult to correct, improve, streamline, and avoid failures.
Will the West win? Certainly...!
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It's good vs evil.